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Economic Calendar
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Date Count. Event For Unit Imp. Act. Cons. Prev.
Sep 10 - 00:00 JP  JP BoJ release minutes from prior (9-10th August) MPC Meeting
Sep 10 - 00:00 WLD  WLD Market Holiday- Eid-Ul-Fitr (End of Ramadan) in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines and Singapore
Sep 10 - 00:00 CA  CA BoC Governor Carney, former Federal Reserve Chairman Vocker and IMF representative Zhu attend the Economic Round Table
Sep 10 - 00:00 EU  EU ECB Executive Board Member Stark participates in a discussion in Germany
Sep 10 - 06:45 FR  FR Manufacturing Production Jul % m/m 1.4 0.7 -1.2
Sep 10 - 06:45 FR  FR Manufacturing Production Jul % y/y 5.9 4.4 7.1
Sep 10 - 07:00 ES  ES CPI (Final) Aug % y/y 1.8 1.8 1.9
Sep 10 - 07:00 ES  ES HICP (Final) Aug % m/m 0.3 0.3 -0.4
Sep 10 - 07:00 ES  ES HICP (Final) Aug % y/y 1.8 1.8 1.8
Sep 10 - 07:00 ES  ES CPI (Final) Aug % m/m 0.3 0.3 -0.4
Sep 10 - 07:30 SE  SE Industrial Orders Jul % y/y 12.3 15.5
Sep 10 - 07:30 SE  SE Industrial Orders Jul % m/m 5.6 1.5 -2.5
Sep 10 - 07:30 DK  DK HICP Aug % y/y 2.3 2 2.1
Sep 10 - 07:30 DK  DK CPI Aug % m/m 0.3 0.2
Sep 10 - 07:30 DK  DK CPI Aug % y/y 2.3 2.1 2.3
Sep 10 - 07:30 DK  DK HICP Aug % m/m 0.2 -0.1
Sep 10 - 08:00 FI  FI Finance Ministry publishes Economic Forecast
Sep 10 - 08:30 GB  GB Output Prices Core (unadj)A monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. The figure is also known as "Factory Gate Price" because it usually matches the price of goods when they first leave the factory. Increased prices in manufacturing typically lead to higher retail prices for consumers. However, it is also likely that higher output prices are caused by manufacturers charging a higher premium due to higher demand for their goods. Consequently, market trends in consumption should be considered with Output PPI to avoid data misinterpretation.

There is also a Core Output PPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.

The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Output) from the previous quarter and previous year.		 Aug % m/m 0.1 0.2
Sep 10 - 08:30 GB  GB Input Prices (unadj)A monthly survey that measures change in input prices as incurred by UK manufacturers. Input prices include the cost of materials used plus operation costs of running the business. The index can be used as a measure of inflation, given that higher input costs will likely be passed on from producers to consumers in the form of higher retail prices. Th e figure is also calculated as Core Input PPI, which excludes volatile inputs such as food and energy that may distort the data. As such, the core figure is a more appropriate measure of inflation.

The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Input) from the previous quarter and previous year		 Aug % y/y 8.9 10.8
Sep 10 - 08:30 GB  GB Output Prices (unadj)A monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. The figure is also known as "Factory Gate Price" because it usually matches the price of goods when they first leave the factory. Increased prices in manufacturing typically lead to higher retail prices for consumers. However, it is also likely that higher output prices are caused by manufacturers charging a higher premium due to higher demand for their goods. Consequently, market trends in consumption should be considered with Output PPI to avoid data misinterpretation.

There is also a Core Output PPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.

The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Output) from the previous quarter and previous year.		 Aug % m/m 0.1 0.1
Sep 10 - 08:30 GB  GB Output Prices (unadj)A monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. The figure is also known as "Factory Gate Price" because it usually matches the price of goods when they first leave the factory. Increased prices in manufacturing typically lead to higher retail prices for consumers. However, it is also likely that higher output prices are caused by manufacturers charging a higher premium due to higher demand for their goods. Consequently, market trends in consumption should be considered with Output PPI to avoid data misinterpretation.

There is also a Core Output PPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.

The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Output) from the previous quarter and previous year.		 Aug % y/y 4.8 5
Sep 10 - 08:30 GB  GB Input Prices (unadj)A monthly survey that measures change in input prices as incurred by UK manufacturers. Input prices include the cost of materials used plus operation costs of running the business. The index can be used as a measure of inflation, given that higher input costs will likely be passed on from producers to consumers in the form of higher retail prices. Th e figure is also calculated as Core Input PPI, which excludes volatile inputs such as food and energy that may distort the data. As such, the core figure is a more appropriate measure of inflation.

The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Input) from the previous quarter and previous year		 Aug % m/m 0.1 -0.1
Sep 10 - 09:00 IT  IT Current Account Jul EUR mn -2698
Sep 10 - 14:00 US  US Wholesale InventoriesThe stock of unsold goods held by wholesalers. Wholesalers act as intermediaries between manufacturers or importers, and retailers. Wholesalers sell directly to retailers, who strive to act in accordance (ideally) with consumer demand. Consequently, high Wholesale Inventories indicate that unsold goods are piling up, suggesting that retailers are facing lagging consumer demand and unwilling to purchase goods. Conversely, declining Wholesale Inventories suggest retailers are buying more goods to meet strong or rising demand. Because Wholesale Inventories reflect the demand retailers have for their manufacturers' wares, the report offers an early indication of the potential strength of consumer spending.

Wholesale Inventories are reported in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.		 Jul % m/m 0.4 0.1
Sep 12 - 00:00 EU  EU BIS Central Banker meeting
Sep 13 - 00:00 WLD  WLD Annual World Alternative Investment Summit is held at Niagra Falls in Canada (13th-15th Sep)
Sep 13 - 00:00 EU  EU ECB President Trichet gives press conference as part of BIS Central Banker meeting
Sep 13 - 06:45 FR  FR Current AccountThe French Current Account is the sum of the trade balance on goods and services, net income payments, and net current transfers. The trade balance on goods and services is the value of exports minus the value of imports. Net income payments is the amount of income generated for French nationals from foreign assets, like stocks and bonds, minus the amount paid to foreign nationals who own French assets. Lastly, transfer payments represent unilateral payments to and from the country, such as foreign aid donations and foreign worker salaries being sent home. Current account is one of the three components (Financial Account, Capital Account and Current Account) that make up a country's Balance of Payments.

The flow of goods and services (trade balance) usually makes up most of the Current Account. Hence, a trade surplus is likely to contribute to a Current Account surplus while a trade deficit will likely cause a Current Account deficit. Generally the French current account is a useful measure of international trade flows that directly affect the value of Euro. A French current account surplus means that more Euros are flowing into France and this puts upward pressure on the value of the Euro. On the contrary a current account deficit reflects Euros leaking out of France; this can exert downward pressure on value of the Euro.

The headline number is the Current Account balance and the percentage change in the Current Account from the previous month. 		Jul EUR bn -2.7
Sep 13 - 07:30 NL  NL Trade balance Jul EUR bn 2.7
Sep 13 - 16:30 US  US Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Lockhart moderates a Q&A session with British Ambassador to the US Sheinwald at a World Affairs Council Meeting
Sep 13 - 18:00 US  US Budget Aug $ bn -104 -165
Sep 13 - 23:01 GB  GB Nationwide Consumer ConfidenceSurvey that queries economic participants on their current and future expectations for the UK economy. Rising consumer confidence generally precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. The figure is released at the start of each month, making Nationwide Consumer Confidence a timely measure of consumer sentiment now and in the immediate future.

The headline figure is the index value for the Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index, where the May 2004 figure is 100.		 Aug Index 56
Sep 14 - 00:00 CA  CA BoC Governor Carney speaks in Berlin on "The Economic Consequences of Financial Reform"
Sep 14 - 00:30 AU  AU Business Indicators (Profits, inventories) Q3 % q/q -0.5
Sep 14 - 04:30 JP  JP Industrial Production (Final) Jul % m/m
Sep 14 - 04:30 JP  JP Industrial Production (Final) Jul % y/y
Sep 14 - 04:30 JP  JP Capacity UtilisationCapacity utilization measures the extent to which Japanese manufacturing companies make use of their installed productive capacity (factories and machinery). Capacity utilization reflects overall growth and demand in the economy. High capacity utilization usually exerts inflationary pressures as scarce resources are in high demand. However, it may also lead to new capital investments, such as new plants, that promote growth in the future.

As a technical note, capacity utilization is referred to as Operating Ratio by the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, and indexed to the year 2000 with a base value of 100. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index from the previous month or previous year.		 Jul % m/m -2.1
Sep 14 - 08:30 GB  GB DCLG House Prices Aug % y/y 9.9
Sep 14 - 12:30 US  US Retail SalesMonthly measure of sales of goods to consumers at retail outlets. The figure is a significant market mover, valuable both for its timeliness and insight into consumer demand and consumer confidence. Consumer spending is vital to the US economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of all economic activity. Given that retail sales make up a hefty one third of such spending, the Advanced Retail Sales figure acts as a measure of consumer demand before GDP is released.

The figure has its limits, though. For instance, the timely release of the report comes at the cost of volatility in the figures and significant monthly revisions. It is not unusual for the figure to come out positive one month, only to be subsequently revised as negative. Retail Sales can also be volatile due to seasonality. Additionally, the report has been criticized for excluding service sector sales and failing to adjust for inflation. Despite these drawbacks, the figure still moves the market on release, mainly because of the importance of consumer spending to the US economy.

The Retail Sales figure is calculated as the total receipts of retail sales in nominal dollars based on a sample of stores throughout the month - returns, taxes and finance charges are excluded. It appears in the headlines as the annualize percentage change from the previous month.		 Aug % m/m 0.3 0.4
Sep 14 - 12:30 US  US Retail Sales Ex AutosMonthly measure of sales of goods to consumers at retail outlets. The figure is a significant market mover, valuable both for its timeliness and insight into consumer demand and consumer confidence. Consumer spending is vital to the US economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of all economic activity. Given that retail sales make up a hefty one third of such spending, the Advanced Retail Sales figure acts as a measure of consumer demand before GDP is released.

The figure has its limits, though. For instance, the timely release of the report comes at the cost of volatility in the figures and significant monthly revisions. It is not unusual for the figure to come out positive one month, only to be subsequently revised as negative. Retail Sales can also be volatile due to seasonality. Additionally, the report has been criticized for excluding service sector sales and failing to adjust for inflation. Despite these drawbacks, the figure still moves the market on release, mainly because of the importance of consumer spending to the US economy.

The Retail Sales figure is calculated as the total receipts of retail sales in nominal dollars based on a sample of stores throughout the month - returns, taxes and finance charges are excluded. It appears in the headlines as the annualize percentage change from the previous month.

Retail Sales Ex Autos

The Retail Sales figure is also reported excluding automobile sales. Given their high cost, auto sales contribute significantly to retails sales, comprising nearly a quarter of the figure. As a result, changes in automobile sales can produce high fluctuations in the retails sales report. Vehicle sales are prone to seasonal changes, thereby easily distorting retail sales trends. To provide a more accurate picture of retail sales the auto component is removed and followed more closely.		 Aug % m/m 0.3 0.2
Sep 14 - 12:30 CA  CA Labour ProductivityThe average productivity level of Canadian workers. Labour Productivity is calculated by dividing the gross domestic product (GDP) by the number of hours worked, yielding output per hour, which is the key measure of productivity growth. The availability of better technology and higher levels of education among the workforce are factors commonly attributed to increased productivity. Growth in labour productivity is usually seen as a sign of a healthy economy because higher productivity allows higher output for a fixed population. Rising Labour Productivity can also offset inflationary pressures associated with economic growth and spending. Economic expansion attributed to increased Labour Productivity will not result in inflation, meaning that central banks will not need to increase interest rates during times of high growth.

The headline figure is the percentage change in output per hour.		 Q2 % q/q 0.7 0.8
Sep 14 - 12:30 CA  CA Motor Vehicle SalesChange in the number of new cars and trucks sold domestically. It's a sign of consumer confidence - rising demand for expensive durable goods shows that consumers are confident in their future financial position and feel comfortable spending money. Jul % m/m 2.5
Sep 14 - 14:00 US  US Business inventoriesUnsold goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. Business Inventories are often able to show economic turning points. A significant decrease in inventories implies that the economy is on the verge of rapid growth because stockrooms for businesses are empty and need to be replenished, which triggers higher production overall.

Inventories are also useful when examined in conjunction with total business sales. Rising inventories paired with slackening business sales are indicative of troubled economic times. When business sales slow, retailers' inventories increase and they are forced cut back on wholesale orders. Wholesalers, affected by the fear of swelling inventories, will slow or even shut down production in factories.

Recent technological advancements allow firms to manage inventories more efficiently, keeping inventory levels lower. Accordingly, declines in inventory stores are often indicative of productivity increases rather than changes in demand. But these logistical advances put particular emphasis on growing inventories. Increases in stocks of goods signal declining demand in America .

While the Business Inventories figure is released with the Advanced Retail Sales report, the Advanced Retail Sales report features a lag time of merely two weeks. The Business Inventories' lag time is three times as long, making it an indicator that follows rather than leads the overall pace of the economy. Market participants tend to focus more on the Advanced Retail Sales figures.

The headline number is expressed as a percentage change from the previous month.		 Jul % m/m 0.5 0.3
Sep 14 - 14:00 US  US IBD consumer optimismLevel of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers; above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. This is a survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level if economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies Sep index 43.6
Sep 14 - 14:30 CA  CA Capacity UtilisationMeasures the extent to which Canadian manufacturing companies make use of their productive capacity (factories and machinery). Capacity Utilization Rates act as an indicator of overall demand in the economy. High Capacity Utilization Rates reflect that resources are in high demand, and this exerts inflationary pressures. High Capacity Utilization Rates may also lead to new capital investments, such as new plants and equipment that promote growth in the future. The headline figure is reported as the ratio of actual production to potential production.

Note: The data is gathered from the Capital and Repairs Expenditure survey. Unlike some of the other surveys done by Statistics Canada , this survey is not mandatory.		 Q2 %
Sep 14 - 14:30 CA  CA Capacity UtilisationMeasures the extent to which Canadian manufacturing companies make use of their productive capacity (factories and machinery). Capacity Utilization Rates act as an indicator of overall demand in the economy. High Capacity Utilization Rates reflect that resources are in high demand, and this exerts inflationary pressures. High Capacity Utilization Rates may also lead to new capital investments, such as new plants and equipment that promote growth in the future. The headline figure is reported as the ratio of actual production to potential production.

Note: The data is gathered from the Capital and Repairs Expenditure survey. Unlike some of the other surveys done by Statistics Canada , this survey is not mandatory.		 Q2 % 74.2
Sep 14 - 15:15 EU  EU EU Economic and Monetary Commisioner Rehn gives closing speech at Eurofound Economic Conferece on Economic Growth
Sep 15 - 00:00 WLD  WLD WTO Public Forum 2010: "The Forces Shaping World Trade" (15-17 Sept)
Sep 15 - 00:00 CA  CA BoC Deputy Governor Lane gives speech to the Board of Trade
Sep 15 - 00:01 JP  JP BoJ Deputy Governor Nishimura gives speech in Tokyo
Sep 15 - 01:00 AU  AU DEWR Skilled Vacancies Sep % m/m -0.3
Sep 15 - 06:00 DE  DE Wholesale price indexMeasures changes in the prices paid by retailers for finished goods. Growth in wholesale prices usually precedes increases in retail prices, thus changes in Wholesale Prices can be used as an early indicator for inflation. While the CPI records price changes for retail goods, the WPI might pick up inflationary pressures before they reach the headline retail CPI report. The headline number is the percentage change in the index.
Note: WPI provides seasonally adjusted price changes to account for goods' seasonally volatility.		 Aug % m/m 0.3
Sep 15 - 06:00 DE  DE Wholesale price indexMeasures changes in the prices paid by retailers for finished goods. Growth in wholesale prices usually precedes increases in retail prices, thus changes in Wholesale Prices can be used as an early indicator for inflation. While the CPI records price changes for retail goods, the WPI might pick up inflationary pressures before they reach the headline retail CPI report. The headline number is the percentage change in the index.
Note: WPI provides seasonally adjusted price changes to account for goods' seasonally volatility.		 Aug % y/y 5.3
Sep 15 - 07:30 SE  SE Riksbank release minutes from prior (1st Sept) MPC meeting
Sep 15 - 08:00 IT  IT CPI (Final) Aug % m/m 0.2
Sep 15 - 08:00 IT  IT CPI (Final) Aug % y/y 1.6
Sep 15 - 09:00 EU  EU HICP - Core (Final) Aug % y/y 1
Sep 15 - 09:00 EU  EU HICP (Final) Aug % m/m -0.3
Sep 15 - 09:00 EU  EU HICP (Final) Aug % y/y 1.6
Sep 15 - 09:00 CH  CH Credit Suisse ZEW Survey Sep Survey 9.1
Sep 15 - 09:15 EU  EU EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commisioner Rehn holds press conference following the release of Economic Forecasts
Sep 15 - 11:45 EU  EU ECB hold non-rate setting meeting (15th-16th)
Sep 15 - 12:30 US  US Empire State SurveySurvey assessing business conditions and expectations of manufacturing executives in New York . Though the survey is relatively new and New York has a considerably small number of manufacturers, the report has shown a promising correlation to the Philadelphia Fed Index and the market moving ISM Manufacturing Survey. Thus Empire serves as a useful earlier indicator of overall manufacturing in the US .

Results are calculated as the difference between percentage of positive and negative scores; zero acts as the breakeven point. A high figure is bullish for the dollar, indicating positive business sentiment conducive to growth in production. A low or negative number signals poor business conditions.		 Sep index 9 7.1
Sep 15 - 12:30 US  US Import pricesTracks changes in the prices paid for goods imported to the United States. The figure is significant in relation to the trade balance, the difference between the total value of exports and the total value of imports. A positive trade balance (surplus) acts as an appreciating weight on the dollar, reflecting demand for dollars in exchange for exports. Conversely, a negative value (deficit) puts downward pressure on the dollar's value. Given such impacts, traders assess changes in import prices to gain insight on the trade balance. The Import Price Index becomes useful in determining whether a change in import volume has actually sprung from a higher foreign demand or from a real increase in prices for foreign goods.

The US is a net importer nation, where imports a significant part of the nation's GDP. Accordingly, a major price swing in foreign goods can have significant impact on the US inflation.

The headline figure is the percentage change in the index from either the previous month or for the year. Import Price Index Excluding Petroleum gives a better overall assessment to the import price change in the United States since petroleum price is highly volatile.		 Aug % m/m 0.2 0.2
Sep 15 - 12:30 CA  CA Manufacturing sales Jul % m/m 0.1
Sep 15 - 13:00 BE  BE Trade Balance Jun EUR mn -335.2
Sep 15 - 13:15 US  US Capacity utilisationCapacity Utilization measures the extent to which U.S. manufacturing companies make use of their installed productive capacity (factories and machinery). Capacity Utilization reflects overall growth and demand in the economy, rising when the economy is vibrant, and falling when demand softens. High capacity utilization also exerts inflationary pressures as scarce resources are in higher demand. However, it may also lead to new capital investments, such as new plants, that promote growth in the future. Aug % 74.9 74.8
Sep 15 - 13:15 US  US Industrial productionMeasures changes in the volume of output produced by the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors. Because industrial production is a measure of output volume rather than dollar value, the figure is not distorted by inflation and is considered a more "pure" indicator for US industry. Though industrial production only accounts for a relatively small portion of GDP, it accounts for most of the volatility in GDP and is considered highly sensitive to changes in interest rate and consumer demand. Therefore understanding trends in this figure are important to forecasting GDP. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.

The figure varies significantly month to month due to the fact that seasonal and weather-related factors often alter factory production and utility demand. Because of this volatility, the report has limited market impact.

The figure is calculated as a weighted aggregate of goods and reported in headlines as a percent change from previous months.		 Aug % m/m 0.2 1
Sep 15 - 21:00 NZ  NZ RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement and Official Cash Rate announcement
Sep 15 - 23:50 JP  JP METI Tertiary activity indexEvaluates the monthly change in output produced by Japan's service sector. Japan's economy is very export based, because this report excludes manufacturing and only measures service industries catering mainly to domestic needs, the Tertiary Industry Index is a key indicator of domestic activity. The index incorporates data from firms involved with wholesale and retail trade, financial services, health care, real estate, leisure, and utilities. The report excludes industrial manufacturing sectors that tend to be influenced by foreign demand. The tertiary industry index is posted monthly as a percentage change from the previous month's figure. Jul % m/m 0.8 -0.1
Sep 16 - 00:00 EU  EU ECB holds non-rate settng meeting
Sep 16 - 01:30 AU  AU RBA Bulletin
Sep 16 - 03:45 AU  AU RBA Assistant Governor Lowe speaks in Sydney
Sep 16 - 06:00 JP  JP BoJ Governor Shirakawa to speak in Tokyo at the Japanese Brokerages' Meeting
Sep 16 - 07:15 CH  CH Industrial ProductionMeasures the level of production of Swiss manufacturing industries. The figure tracks relative changes in the production of all goods whether they are sold domestically or abroad. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index from the previous quarter or year.

Industrial Production is highly sensitive to the business cycle, thus can forecast changes in employment, earnings, and personal income. Consequently, Industrial Production is considered a reliable leading indicator that conveys information about the overall health of the Swiss economy.		 Q2 % y/y 5.3
Sep 16 - 07:30 NL  NL Retail Trade Jul % y/y 2.1
Sep 16 - 07:30 NL  NL Unemployment (sa) Jul-Aug % rate 5.5
Sep 16 - 08:30 GB  GB BoE releases Inflation Attitudes Survey
Sep 16 - 09:00 EU  EU Labour cost indexEuro-zone Labor Costs captures employers' total cost of employing a labor force. Rising labor costs are viewed as an indicator of forthcoming inflation, which can drive up interest rates.

Unit labor costs (labor costs divided by output) is a figure used to gauge productivity; higher levels of productivity lower unit labor costs and visa versa. Higher levels of productivity effectively allow one worker to produce more. Labor costs include gross wages and salaries, social contributions by employers and taxes remaining after all subsidies related to employment. Measured on an hourly basis, the figure is calculated as a percent changer per quarter.		 Q2 % y/y 2.1
Sep 16 - 09:00 EU  EU Trade balance (nsa)The difference between the value of exports and imports in Germany. Trade Balance is one of the biggest components of Germany 's Balance of Payment. As Germany is Europe's largest economy and given Germany's export oriented economy, trade data can give critical insight into pressures on the value of the Euro.

In order to gauge the effect of German Trade Balance on the Euro, German trade is separated into intra-Euro-zone trades and extra-Euro-zone trades. Intra-trades between Germany and Euro-zone member countries have no affect on the overall valuation of Euro. Extra-trades between Germany and other countries outside of Euro-zone do impact the overall Euro-zone trade balance. Given Germany's large share of Euro-zone exports, the figure tends to move the market upon release.

Trade surpluses reflect funds coming into Germany in exchange for goods and services. Such currency inflows may lead to a natural appreciation of a Euro, unless countered by similar capital outflows. At a bare minimum, surpluses will boost up the value of the currency.

This is the the non-seasonally adjusted (nsa) data. 		Jul EUR bn 2.4 2.4
Sep 16 - 09:00 EU  EU Trade balance (sa)The difference between the value of exports and imports in Germany. Trade Balance is one of the biggest components of Germany's Balance of Payment. As Germany is Europe's largest economy and given Germany's export oriented economy, trade data can give critical insight into pressures on the value of the Euro.

In order to gauge the effect of German Trade Balance on the Euro, German trade is separated into intra-Euro-zone trades and extra-Euro-zone trades. Intra-trades between Germany and Euro-zone member countries have no affect on the overall valuation of Euro. Extra-trades between Germany and other countries outside of Euro-zone do impact the overall Euro-zone trade balance. Given Germany's large share of Euro-zone exports, the figure tends to move the market upon release.

Trade surpluses reflect funds coming into Germany in exchange for goods and services. Such currency inflows may lead to a natural appreciation of a Euro, unless countered by similar capital outflows. At a bare minimum, surpluses will boost up the value of the currency.

This is the seasonally adjusted (sa) data, not to be confused with the non-seasonally adjusted (nsa) number.		 Jul EUR bn -1.6 -1.6
Sep 16 - 10:00 GB  GB CBI Industrial TrendsA survey of senior manufacturing executives on trends in output, prices, exports, and costs. The CBI Industrial Trends Survey collects data on topics like current business confidence, capacity utilization, and investment intentions. The survey differs from most other economic surveys in that it focuses on the opinions of executives rather than quantitative data.

The report is released as an index with the zero boom/bust centerline. 		Sep % -14
Sep 16 - 12:00 CH  CH SNB monetary policy assessment
Sep 16 - 12:30 US  US Initial ClaimsThe number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes. 11-Sep k
Sep 16 - 12:30 US  US PPIMeasures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services, and well as tracks how prices feed through the production process. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. The report also gives insight into how higher prices from raw materials flow toward the final product.

A rise in PPI signals an increase in inflationary pressures. Given the economic instability associated with rising price levels, the Fed often will raise interest rates to check inflation. A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown.

The headline figure is expressed in percentage change of producer price.		 Aug % m/m 0.3 0.2
Sep 16 - 12:30 US  US PPI ex food and energyMeasures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services, and well as tracks how prices feed through the production process. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. The report also gives insight into how higher prices from raw materials flow toward the final product.

A rise in PPI signals an increase in inflationary pressures. Given the economic instability associated with rising price levels, the Fed often will raise interest rates to check inflation. A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown.

The headline figure is expressed in percentage change of producer price.

Core PPI, Excluding Food and Energy

The PPI is also reported without the volatile food and energy components. In addition to being seasonally volatile, the two comprise a significant portion of US goods. As a result, any sudden disruption in oil or food supplies will significantly distort the Producer Price Index inflation assessment. By excluding such entities, Core PPI is able to provide a truer, more consistent picture of US inflation trends.		 Aug % m/m 0.1 0.3
Sep 16 - 12:30 US  US
Current accountThe Current Account Balance Summarizes the flow of goods, services, income and transfer payments into and out of the US . The report acts as a line-item record of how the US economy interacts with the world economy. The Current Account is one of the three components that make up a country's Balance of Payments (Financial Account, Capital Account and Current Account), the detailed accounting of all international interactions. Where the other side of the Balance of Payments, Capital and Financial Accounts deal mainly with financial assets and investments, the Current Account gives a detailed breakdown of how the country intermingles with rest of the global economy on a non-investment basis - tracking good and services.

The Current Account tracks the trade balance (exports and imports for goods and services), income payments (such as interest, dividends and salaries) and unilateral transfers (aid, taxes, and one-way gifts). A positive value (current account surplus) indicates that the flow of capital from these components into America exceeds the capital leaving the country. A negative value (current account deficit) means that there is a net capital outflow from these sources. Persistent Current Account deficits may lead to a natural depreciation of a currency, as trade, income and transfer payments usually reflect that dollars are leaving the country to make payments in a foreign currency (just as underlying surpluses act as an appreciating weight). Such depreciation may be offset by capital flows into the country; the TICs or Net Foreign Security Purchases tracks such flows.

Trade balance is typically the largest element of the Current Account. For the past few decades the US has experienced high current account deficits primarily as a result of large trade deficits.

There are a number of factors that often work to diminish the impact of the Current Account release on the market. The report is not very timely, released monthly at least a month after the reporting period. In addition, many of the components that lead to the final Current Account, such as production and trade figures, are known well in advance. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month, any significant developments in the Current Account should plausibly have been already felt during that quarter and not during the release of data.

But just like GDP and Trade Balance, Current Account is central to forecasting long term developments in foreign exchange rates. It gives a detailed picture of how the US economy interacts internationally, breaking down these exchanges into separate components that can be tracked and often anticipated. Thus the weight of the Current Account has led it historically to be one of the more important reports out of the United States.		 Q2 $ bn -123.9 -109
Sep 16 - 13:00 US  US Treasury International Capital System (TICS)Summarizes the flow of stocks, bonds, and money market funds to and from the United States . The headline figure is the difference in value between American purchases of foreign securities and foreign purchases of American securities, expressed in millions of dollars. The Treasury International Capital or TIC statement is a major component of the American capital account and gives valuable insight into foreign demand for American investments and dollar.

A positive figure indicates that more capital is entering the US than leaving as sales of American securities to foreigners exceed American purchases of foreign securities. Such positive figures suggest that American security markets are competitive with those of other countries. Foreign security purchases are especially important in the case of a trade deficit, as a positive figure can offset the depreciating effect of a trade shortfall. On the contrary, a negative or declining TICS figure reflects a declining capital flow picture. Outflows are indicative of weaker demand for US assets which puts downward pressure on the value of the dollar.
A key feature of the TIC data is its measurement of the types of investors the dollar has; governments and private investors. Usually, a strong government holding of dollar denominated assets signals growing dollar optimism as it shows that governments are confident in the stability of the U.S. dollar. Most importantly seems to be the purchases of Asian central banks such as that of Japan and China. Waning demand by these two behemoth US Treasury holders could be bearish for the US dollar. As for absolute amount of foreign purchases, the market generally likes to see purchases be much stronger than the funding needs of that same month's trade deficit. If it is not, it signals that there is not enough dollars coming in to match dollar going out of the country. As a side note, purchases by Caribbean central banks are generally seen to be less consistent since most hedge funds are incorporated in the Caribbean. Hedge funds generally have a much shorter attention span than other investors.		 Jul US $ bn 44.4
Sep 16 - 14:00 US  US Philadelphia Fed SurveySurvey conducted by the Philadelphia Fed questioning manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District on general business conditions. Conducted since 1968, the "Philly Fed" survey is an established report, valued for its timeliness, scope of coverage and tendency to forecast developments in the market moving ISM Manufacturing figure.

Higher Philadelphia Fed Survey figures indicate a positive outlook from manufacturers, suggesting increased production. Higher production contributes to economic growth, which is generally bullish for the dollar.

Results are calculated as the difference between percentage of positive and negative scores; zero acts as the centerline point.		 Sept index 1.5 -7.7
Sep 16 - 23:15 CA  CA FinMin Flaherty speaks to the Calgary Chamber of Commerce